On the surface, Democratic politicians are acting very nonchalant about the possibility that one of their own could mount a third-party presidential challenge against President Joe Biden. “There are often third-party candidates running, so I’m not overly troubled,” Senator Tim Kaine told Vanity Fair. Connecticut senator Chris Murphy said Thursday that it was too early to be concerned: “It is not on my list of things to worry about right now. I understand it’s an interesting conversation of a political class, but it’s a little premature to worry about it.”

Others merely expressed their support for Biden and Kamala Harris. “Ah, let the pundits do that. But I’m all in for Biden-Harris,” Senator Raphael Warnock said when asked about the threat of a third-party candidate. “I think Joe Biden has a strong record to run on,” Senator Elizabeth Warren said. “I don’t think anybody can touch that.” Tina Smith echoed the sentiment. “Honestly, I’m focused on reelecting President Biden and reelecting a Democratic Senate and maybe even adding seats,” the Minnesota senator said.

But Smith did add that the hubbub over a third-party candidacy was certainly not “helpful,” even if “it doesn’t change the fundamental dynamic of the race.”

Center stage is Joe Manchin and continuing speculation that he may make a bid for the White House as the independent, centrist, “No Labels” candidate. The latest development in Manchin’s will-he-or-won’t-he saga came Wednesday when news broke that the West Virginia senator will appear next week in New Hampshire for a town hall hosted by No Labels, a group that very firmly believes 2024 could be the year of the third-party candidate. While Manchin billed his planned appearance as an opportunity to engage in a debate “around common sense solutions to solve the pressing issues facing our nation,” he also stopped short of shutting down the possibility of a presidential run. “I’ve never ruled out anything,” he told CNN.

No Labels’ reasoning? Voters are tired of extremism and their candidate could siphon off enough voters from each major party for a victory. Thus far, polling does bear out this narrative in part: A No Labels candidate could very well pull voters away from the two major parties (that alone prompted Dritan Nesho, the chief pollster at No Labels, to tell Axios that the data shows “an unprecedented opening for the independent ticket”). But when it comes to who actually wins, No Labels’ own survey indicates that a third-party candidate is more likely to be a spoiler for Biden. According to a recent poll commissioned by the group, Biden wins 52% to Trump’s 48% in a head-to-head contest between the two. But in a three-way race, Trump wins 40% to Biden’s 39% with the third candidate securing 21% of the vote.

Privately, it appears, Democrats are fretting about this. “What we hear universally from Democrats is deep concern about this,” Matt Bennett, the executive vice president of public affairs at Third Way, a moderate Democratic think tank that has come out in opposition of a third-party candidacy. “We have not encountered a single Democrat who doesn’t think this is bad, other than, you know, Senator Manchin himself, basically.”

“If [Manchin] runs for president, our message to him is: ‘You have no chance of winning. You are almost certain to end up a Jill Stein–level loser,’” Bennett says, a reference to the 2016 Green Party candidate, who only won 1.1% of the vote. “Do you want that to be your legacy?”

Whether or not Democrats want to acknowledge it, the agita around Manchin is being put on their radars. As reported by Politico, Bennett and Rahna Epting, the executive director of MoveOn—a progressive group that is also in opposition to a third-party candidacy—are scheduled to brief all the Senate Democratic chiefs of staff on July 27. Bennett told VF that Third Way has already met with leaders in both the House and Senate and with the Democratic National Committee. “The major concern is reelecting Trump, which is the horror of horrors,” he said, but added that an independent candidate could be a potential drag on down-ballot Democrats as well.

Some House Democrats are more up-front about the stakes. “Everyone has a right to run,” Congressman Eric Swalwell told VF. “But I think it’s clear that this country is Team Community or Team Chaos right now—and anything that hurts Team Community helps Team Chaos.” Swalwell’s fellow California colleague had a similar take. “I don’t think it helps to have someone take away potentially suburban moderate votes, and I’ve always said that the challenge to the president isn’t from the left, it’s from the more right-, center-right wing of the party,” Congressman Ro Khanna said.

As for No Labels, itself, lawmakers have no shortage of complaints. “Who are they and who is funding them?” Smith asked. “They start to look and sound a lot like a political party, but they’re not putting out any of the information that political parties need to put out. So those are my questions about their effort.” 

Murphy was even more blunt. “They appear to be a pretty classic Republican front group designed to try to elect a Republican president.”